Conglomerates have relatively elevated debt levels. Aside from havingaggressive capex, conglomerates’ relatively elevated debt levels (gearingexceeding 100% for some) are drawbacks during higher interest rates.
Share price correction led by negative news flow: IHCL has corrected ~20% overthe past three months (vs a flat broader market) led by higher GST rates and therecent board approval for fundraising of up to INR1.5bn through a rights issue. Thecompany is raising money to meet long-term financing needs such as capex, growthplans and debt repayment (Business Standard, August 20) which led to anotherc10% fall in the price in the past two weeks.
The potential large difference between the firm and the comparing counterparts may lead to very imprecise estimate of value
Comparables only provide information regarding the value of a firm relative to other firms in the comparison set. Therefore, using multiples will not help us determine if an entire industry is incorrectly valued
Property companies likely to continue launches. We expect that propertycompanies will continue to launch more residential projects in 2018 to ride theresurgence in demand from last year. Ayala Land and Megaworld, the twolargest residential developers by take-up value, are keen to increase launchesthis year in light of declining inventory levels. In addition, we continue to seestrong demand from Chinese buyers due to expansion of offshore gaming.
Operating drivers continue to improve: We believe the recent correction does notdetract from our positive thesis and represents a good opportunity to add to positionsin IHCL as operating drivers continue to improve. In 1Q, the improvement inoperating drivers helped the company sharply improve EBITDA margins for thedomestic business – by 330bps y-o-y. We expect IHCL’s occupancy levels toimprove 400bps to 70% by FY19e and ADR to rise at a CAGR of 5% over FY17-19e.
For a publicly traded firm, its current stock price should already provide very accurate information, aggregated from a multitude of investors, regarding the true value of its shares
Based on its current stock price, a valuation model will tell us something about the firm’s future cash flows or cost of capital
Telcos might see higher financing costs. Both PLDT and Globe are likelyto keep capex elevated, close to 30% of total service revenues in the nearterm. Since dividend payout remains high for both PLDT (60%) and Globe(89%), capex will likely be funded by more debt. Consequently, financing costwill also increase as rates go up.
In July, the government imposed 28% GST on hotel rooms with a tariff of INR7,500and above – a negative for IHCL with its average room rate (ADR) of more thanINR10,000 for its major hotels across India. Premium hotels used to pay c10% luxurytax and 9% service tax. GST will lead to a 9% increase in total tax paid assuming noinput tax credit. Even if we assume 2-3% input credit, the increase is still high.
An additional, one-time cash flow at the end of the forecast horizon.
The market value of the free cash flow from the project at all future dates.
Consumer/Retail – fairly insulated due to underleveraged positions. Weexpect minimal earnings impact to PH consumer/retail companies of risinginterest rates given their relatively low debt levels, with gross D/E at 0.1-0.6xas of Sep 2017 (net D/E ranging from net cash position to 0.5x). Whilecompanies continue to expand, capex can largely be internally funded (unlessa sizeable acquisition arises that could necessitate bank borrowing for some).
Valuation and risks: We adjust our 2018-19 earnings estimates down to account forhigher GST rates. We value the consolidated business using a 12-month forwardEV/EBITDA multiple of 19x (unchanged), rolled over to September 2018, which is atc15% premium to EIH, the second-largest domestic hotel player, and a 30-50%premium to international peers. We cut our TP to INR145 (from INR155), whichimplies 26.4% upside and we rate the stock Buy.
Scenario Analysis: the effect on the NPV of simultaneously changing
Utilities – not immune to higher interest costs. PH utility companies couldface some pressure from higher finance costs given their relatively highgearing (D/E of 1.2-1.6x, net D/E of 0.9-1.4 as of Sep 2017), except forMeralco (D/E of 0.6x and net cash position as of Sep 2017). What could helpis that much of their debt carry fixed interest rates, helping to mitigate theimpact. More at risk would be those that could be taking on new debt to fundexpansion projects. MPI, for instance, has a healthy pipeline of projects (newand prospective) although other funding options could be explored.
Right issues to fund capex and debt repayment: In February 2017 the companyannounced that it will phase out its Vivanta and Gateway Hotels brands and rebrandunder a new name – Taj Hotels Palaces Resorts Safaris. Although this will helpimprove occupancy and pricing further, the company needs capital to improveproperties to rebrand. We think another option to fund the refurbishment expenditurewould have been through selling some more foreign properties, which are margindilutive. In addition, the company may need capital to bid for Taj Mansingh, which willcome up for e-auction in the next six months.
Banks benefit the most. An increase in interest rates should benefit thebanking sector the most on the back of improved net interest margins. Weestimate that the three largest banks would an average EPS enhancement of5% should a 25bp increase in benchmark rates. Large CASA deposits (>60%)should come in handy, as well as loans where majority are repriceable.
Mutually exclusive projects: If choose one, can’t choose the other
the IRR rule can go wrong because a higher IRR does not necessarily mean a better project (or higher NPV).
Incremental IRR: IRR of the incremental cash flows that would result from replacing one project with another
The Incremental IRR Rule: If the IRR from the incremental cash flows resulting from project A - project B is great than the cost of capital, then replacing B with A is profitable
shortcomings: incremental IRR may not exist; IRR exceeds the cost of capital for both projects does not imply that either project has a positive NPV
enterprise value multiples
This valuation multiple is higher for firms with high growth rates and low capital requirements(so that free cash flow is high in proportion to EBITDA).
One advantage of this multiple over P/E ratio is that it can be better used to compare firms with different amount of leverage.
share repurchase: firm uses excess cash to buy back its own stock.
Implications for the Dividend-Discount Model
The more cash the firm uses to repurchase shares, the less it has available to pay dividends.
By repurchasing, the firm decreases the number of shares outstanding, which increases its earnings per and dividends per share
total payout model: values all of the firms's equity, rather than a single share.
total payout model
Future total payouts are discounted using equity cost of capital.
This model values all of the firm’s equity, rather than a single share. It is more reliable and easier to apply when the firm uses share repurchases
Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery System (MACRS) depreciation
•The most accelerated depreciation allowed
•Need to know which asset class is appropriate for tax purposes
•Multiply MACRS percentage given in table by the initial cost
•Depreciated to zero
Efficient Markets Hypothesis: Implies that securities will be fairly priced, based on their future cash flows, given all information that is available to investors
Public, Easily Interpretable Information
the impact of information that is available to all investors on the firm’s future cash flows can be readily ascertained, then all investors can determine the effect of this information on the firm’s value.
In this situation, we expect the stock price to react nearly instantaneously to such news
Private or Difficult-to-Interpret Information
Private information will be held by a relatively small number of investors. These investors may be able to profit by trading on their information.
In this case,the efficient markets hypothesis will not hold in the strict sense. However, as these informed traders begin to trade, they will tend to move prices, so over time prices will begin to reflect their information as well
The break-even level of an input: the level that causes the NPV of the investment to equal zero
When comparing alternatives, we only need to compare those cash flows that differ between them
Tax loss carryforwards and carrybacks: allow corporations to take losses during its current year and offset them against gains in nearby years
equity cost of capital: expected return of other investments available in the market with equivalent risk to the firm's shares.
stock price should satisfy both buyer and seller
dividend yield: expected annual dividend of the stock divided by its current price.
capital gain: the difference between the expected sale price and purchase price for the stock.
equity cost of capital = dividend yield capital gain rate
compute net present value
NPV investment rule: when making an investment decision, take the alternative with the highest NPV, Choosing this alternative is equivalent to receiving its NPV in cash today.
NPV profile: a graph of the project's NPV over a range of discount rates.
the difference between the cost of capital and the IRR is the maximum estimation error in the cost of capital that can exist without altering the original decision.
Free cash flow
Subtract capital expenditures & Add back depreciation& Subtract increase in Net Working Capital (NWC)
The multiples approach: easy to implement and is based on real values instead of unrealistic forecasts of future cash flows.
Discounted cash flows methods: can incorporate specific information about the firm’s cost of capital or future growth and have the potential to be more accurate and insightful.
No single technique provides a final answer regarding a stock’s true value. Most real-world practitioners use a combination of these approaches and gain confidence if the results are consistent across a variety of methods.
dividend payout rate: the fraction of its earnings that the firm pays as dividends each year.
a simple model of growth
a firm can increase its dividend in these ways:
increase its earnings (net income)
increase its dividend payout rate
retention rate: the fraction of current earnings that the firm retains
Profitable Growth: the balance between dividend and investment when it want to increase its share price.
payback investment rule: only accept a project if its cash flows pay back its initial investment within a pre-specified period.
payback period: the amount of time it takes to pay back the initial investment.
Pitfall #1: ignore the project's cost of capital and the time value of money.
Pitfall #2: ignore cash flows after the payback period.
Pitfall #3: relies on a ad hoc decision criterion (what is the right number of years to require for the payback period?).
Discounted Payback Period: Compute the present value of each cash flow and then determine how long it takes to pay back on a discounted basis
Advantages: Easy to understand; Includes time value of money; Biased towards liquidity
Disadvantages: Requires an arbitrary cutoff point; May reject positive NPV investments; Ignores cash flows beyond the cutoff point; Biased against long-term projects, such as R&D and new products
Determines the value of the firm to all investors, including both equity and debt holders
enterprise value: the net cost of acquiring the firm’s equity, taking its cash, paying off all debt, and owning the unlevered business
Enterprise value = market value of equity debt - cash
Valuing the Enterprise: Discount the free cash flow to all investors using the weighted average cost of capital
free cash flow
Discount rate: firm's weighted average cost of capital
Implementing the Model
Often, the terminal value is estimated by assuming a constant long-run growth rate gFCF for free cash flows beyond year N, so that
implementing by a constant long-run growth
dividend growth rate is not necessarily constant
Sensitivity Analysis: how the NPV varies with avchange in one of the assumptions, holding the other assumptions constant
compute IRR (Internal rate of return)
the IRR investment rule: take any investment opportunity where the IRR exceeds the opportunity cost of capital; turn down any opportunity where IRR is less than the opportunity cost of capital.
only guaranteed to work for a stand-alone project if all of the project's negative cash flows precede its positive cash flows.
Pitfall #1: Delayed investments
Pitfall #2: multiple IRRs
Pitfall #3: nonexistent IRR
dividend grows at certain rate g
stock price grow at the same rate as dividend growth rate
There is a tremendous amount of uncertainty associated with forecasting a firm’s dividend growth rate and future dividends
Small changes in the assumed dividend growth rate can lead to large changes in the estimated stock price
Can not accurately estimate the stock price if the firm also do shares repurchase
Liquidation value of assets that are no longer needed and may be disposed of
If the market salvage value is different from the book value, then there is a tax
effect: You have to pay taxes at the ordinary income tax rate on the difference
Opportunity cost: The value a resource could have provided in its best alternative use
should be included when calculating the incremental earnings of a project
Project Externalities: Indirect effects of the project that may affect the profits of other business activities of the firm
should be included when calculating the incremental earnings of a project
e.g. Cannibalization: the situation when sales of a new product displaces sales of an existing product
Sunk costs: costs that have been or will be paid regardless of the decision whether or not the investment is undertaken
should NOT be included in the incremental earnings analysis
capital budget: A list of the investments that a company plans to undertake
Investment in a new –product line that requires investment in plant, equipment, and inventories.
Investment in an automated equipment that will allows the firm to reduce its cost.
Replacement of an existing plant in order to expand capacity or lower operating costs
Capital Budgeting: Process used to analyze alternative investments and decide which ones to accept
1.Coming up with proposals for investment projects
3.Deciding which ones to accept and which to reject
Incremental Earnings/Cash flow: The amount by which the firm’s earnings/cash flow are expected to change as a result of the investment decision
profitability index (PI):The ratio of the project’s NPV to its initial investment
PI measures the benefit per unit cost, based on the time value of money. For example, a profitability index of 0.1 implies that for every $1 of investment, we create an additional $0.10 in value
Accept the project if PI > 0
Resource constraints: Every firm has a limit set on various resources for investment. For example, the funds available for investments are limited.
a firm can only take up a limited number of projects. With limited resource, a firm should pick up projects with the highest profitability index
shortcomings: With multiple resource constraints, the profitability index can break down completely; as IRR, profitability index may lead to incorrect decisions in comparisons of mutually exclusive investments
P/E Ratio: Share price divided by earnings per share
Forward P/E (preferred)
general dividend-discount model: the price of stock is equal to the present value of the expected future dividends it will pay.